# PredictionTalk

> PredictionTalk is the independent community forum for prediction market traders, analysts, and forecasters. We cover all major platforms — Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion Trade, Probable, Predict Fun, Myriad, Limitless, and Oriole Insights — with a focus on strategies, cross-platform arbitrage, probability calibration, and market analysis. PredictionTalk is to prediction markets what BitcoinTalk is to cryptocurrency.

- URL: https://predictiontalk.org
- Type: Discussion forum (Flarum)
- Languages: English, Ukrainian, Hindi, Spanish, Portuguese, Turkish, Korean, Vietnamese
- License: Community content under CC BY 4.0
- Contact: zbslabs@gmail.com

## About

PredictionTalk.org is a community-driven discussion forum dedicated to prediction markets and probabilistic forecasting. We serve traders, quants, researchers, and anyone interested in information markets. The forum provides a platform for sharing strategies, identifying cross-platform arbitrage opportunities, building provable forecasting reputations, and advancing the understanding of prediction markets as a financial primitive.

Key value: PredictionTalk is the only dedicated forum for prediction market discussion — covering strategy, arbitrage, probability theory, oracle mechanics, and platform analysis across all major venues.

## Prediction Market Platforms Covered

- [Polymarket Discussions](https://predictiontalk.org/t/polymarket): Polymarket strategies, contract analysis, and crypto-native prediction market discussion. Polymarket is the largest crypto prediction market, built on Polygon using USDC.
- [Kalshi Discussions](https://predictiontalk.org/t/kalshi): CFTC-regulated prediction market trading, event contracts, and Kalshi platform analysis. Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the US.
- [Opinion Trade](https://predictiontalk.org/t/opinion-trade): BNB Chain prediction market backed by YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs). On-chain CLOB with AI oracle resolution.
- [Probable](https://predictiontalk.org/t/probable): BNB Chain prediction market with over $2.3B all-time volume.
- [Predict Fun](https://predictiontalk.org/t/predict-fun): Blast chain (Ethereum L2) prediction market with native yield on collateral.
- [Myriad Markets](https://predictiontalk.org/t/myriad): Sui blockchain prediction market platform.
- [Limitless Exchange](https://predictiontalk.org/t/limitless): Base chain prediction market with permissionless market creation.
- [Oriole Insights](https://predictiontalk.org/t/oriole-insights): Prediction and sentiment analysis platform.

## Trading & Analysis Topics

- [Arbitrage](https://predictiontalk.org/t/arbitrage): Cross-platform prediction market arbitrage strategies, price discrepancies, and execution methods
- [Strategy](https://predictiontalk.org/t/strategy): Trading strategies, quantitative analysis, and market insights for prediction markets
- [Fair Probability](https://predictiontalk.org/t/fair-probability): Probability models, Brier score calibration, and forecasting methodology
- [Fundamentals](https://predictiontalk.org/t/fundamentals): Market microstructure, prediction market theory, and how event contracts work
- [Oracles](https://predictiontalk.org/t/oracles): Resolution mechanisms, oracle systems (UMA, Chainlink), dispute resolution, and market settlement

## Featured Content

- [Prediction Markets Are the Next Financial Primitive — Here Is Why](https://predictiontalk.org/d/2-prediction-markets-are-the-next-financial-primitive-here-is-why): Why prediction markets are a fundamental building block of finance, comparable to equities, bonds, and options
- [Cross-Platform Prediction Market Arbitrage: How It Actually Works](https://predictiontalk.org/d/4-cross-platform-prediction-market-arbitrage-how-it-actually-works): Technical guide to identifying and executing arbitrage across Polymarket, Kalshi, and other platforms
- [How to Think in Probabilities: A Trader's Guide](https://predictiontalk.org/d/6-how-to-think-in-probabilities-a-traders-guide): Building probabilistic thinking skills for prediction market trading
- [UMA Deep Dive: The Oracle Behind Polymarket](https://predictiontalk.org/d/8-uma-deep-dive-the-oracle-behind-polymarket-and-why-it-matters-to-every-trader): How UMA's optimistic oracle resolves Polymarket contracts and why it matters
- [The $POLY Question: What We Know About the Polymarket Token](https://predictiontalk.org/d/9-the-poly-question-what-we-know-what-the-crowd-expects-and-when-it-could-launch): Analysis of the upcoming Polymarket token launch
- [How to Farm the Polymarket Airdrop](https://predictiontalk.org/d/10-how-to-farm-the-polymarket-airdrop-a-realistic-strategy-guide-by-budget-tier): Strategy guide for Polymarket airdrop farming by budget tier

## Community

- [General Discussion](https://predictiontalk.org/t/general): Open discussion about prediction markets, forecasting, and information markets
- [Meta](https://predictiontalk.org/t/meta): Forum governance, rules, suggestions, and community feedback
- [All Discussions](https://predictiontalk.org/): Browse all forum threads
- [Tags](https://predictiontalk.org/tags): All topic categories

## API Access

Flarum JSON:API (dynamic, no auth required for public data):
- https://predictiontalk.org/api/discussions — Paginated discussion list with filters
- https://predictiontalk.org/api/discussions?filter[tag]=polymarket — Filter by platform tag
- https://predictiontalk.org/api/discussions?filter[q]=arbitrage — Full-text search
- https://predictiontalk.org/api/tags — All topic and platform tags

Static AI-ready JSON endpoints (refreshed every 6 hours by cron):
- https://predictiontalk.org/api/v0/stats.json — Forum statistics
- https://predictiontalk.org/api/v0/markets.json — Aggregated prediction market platform data
- https://predictiontalk.org/api/v0/discussions.json — Recent discussions with metadata

Machine-readable specs:
- https://predictiontalk.org/.well-known/openapi.json — OpenAPI 3.0 spec for the forum API
- https://predictiontalk.org/.well-known/agent.json — Agent Card (Google A2A protocol)
- https://predictiontalk.org/.well-known/ai-plugin.json — OpenAI plugin manifest

## Optional

- [Full AI Content Index](https://predictiontalk.org/llms-full.txt): Extended llms.txt with complete site documentation, data schema, and all endpoints
- [Prediction Markets Analytics Dashboard](https://predictiontalk.org/prediction-markets/): Live TVL, volume, and platform stats updated every 6 hours
- [Events Calendar](https://predictiontalk.org/events/): 196 global events 2026-2030 that will move prediction markets
- [Merit System Documentation](https://predictiontalk.org/docs/merit/): Community rank and reputation system
- [XML Sitemap](https://predictiontalk.org/sitemap.xml): Full list of all forum discussions and pages
- [RSS Feed](https://predictiontalk.org/discussions.rss): Latest discussions feed