Your projected airdrop
USD payout
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range —
Tokens
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% of supply
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0.5% 50%
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$100M ↑ last round: $8B $30B
Pool
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vs last round
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Wallets
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Pool $ vs. FDV
yours comparable · open comparable · peak
Per-cohort breakdown
| Cohort | Wallets | Pool share | Cohort pool | Avg per wallet | Who this is |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-tier traders | 37,000 | 50% | — | — | Top ~1.7% by volume (>$50k cumulative). Hyperliquid pattern says these wallets capture the majority of pool value. |
| Active mid-tier | 200,000 | 35% | — | — | ~10% of ever-used wallets. Consistent multi-month activity, meaningful UMA stake, real open interest. |
| Establishment / casual | 1,900,000 | 15% | — | — | Rest of the 2.15M ever-used wallets. Modest allocation — most subject to sybil-filter cuts. |
Advanced sliders
Score-only — tells you where you sit in the farming cohort. No $-prediction (Polymarket has not published bucket-% or FDV).
Fill what you've got. Chips = live Polymarket totals — start typing and watch your share tick up. Source: DefiLlama + Polymarket gamma-api, 2026-07-10.
Trading & profitability
≈56% of Oriole poll weight (volume 33% + OI 22.3% + trades 0.8%). Hyperliquid weighted cumulative volume + trade count above everything else — top traders got millions, farmers got little.
Lifetime taker-side USD
Positions currently open
How many trades you have placed on Polymarket
UMA · validation · resolutions
≈24% of Oriole poll weight. Polymarket resolves markets via UMA's Optimistic Oracle — stakers, dispute voters and assertion proposers directly secure every payout. If POLY launches, this is the group Polymarket needs to keep for the platform to function.
UMA governance stake (in tokens, not USD)
How many disputed assertions you participated in resolving
Optimistic Oracle assertions you initiated
Loyalty · time · growth
≈11% of Oriole poll weight. Anti-sybil signals: months active, market breadth, LP + referral participation. Weak on its own, decisive as a tiebreaker between two similar traders.
Anti-sybil sticky-user signal
Cross-section participation
AMM LP / liquidity rewards program
Volume from users you invited
Score
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× the anchor profile · 1.0× = median trader · 2.0× = ceiling
0 of 0 inputs counted
How the math works
Score = Σ (your_input / anchor × weight), capped at 2× per input. Anchors are conservative serious-farmer profiles per the strategy section above.
Tokens = score × (supply × bucket_pct) ÷ qualifying_wallets. Three scenarios = (low, mid, high) bucket % × supply.
USD = tokens × FDV / total_supply, evaluated at three FDV scenarios.
Assumptions: bucket 0–0% of supply · FDV $0–$0B · qualifying wallets 1.
Score-only mode: USD/Token output disabled. Anchors reflect a serious-farmer profile per the Polymarket forum thread.
How defensible is this model?
Honest grade per assumption. Anything tagged speculative is a heuristic, not a forecast — the calculator output inherits the weakest assumption it depends on.
| Assumption | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Per-metric weights from Oriole community poll (48 voters, Feb 2026) These are not heuristics — the poll captures what actual PT-audience prediction-market traders EXPECT to be rewarded, which is exactly the signal Polymarket looks at when designing the drop. Top-3 metrics (volume 33%, UMA 23.8%, OI 22.3%) got 79% of conviction — high consensus. | high | predictiontalk.org/d/10-… — 48 respondents, weighted |
| Distribution template = Hyperliquid Direct statement from the CMO naming Hyperliquid explicitly. As primary-source as it gets short of the whitepaper. | high | Polymarket CMO Matthew Modabber, public statement (Oct 2025) |
| Sybil-farming is filtered Both Polymarket team and the named comparable (HYPE) explicitly filtered sybils. Multi-wallet strategies WILL be disqualified. | high | Polymarket public statements + Hyperliquid template |
| Cohort split (top 1.7% / active 10% / rest) Cohort *sizes* come from Polymarket's own published wallet distribution. The 50/35/15 pool split is modelled on Hyperliquid Genesis; if PT actual weights differ, per-wallet numbers move but the ordering doesn't. | medium | Polymarket public stats (2.15M ever-used, 37k whales) |
| Assumed 1B total supply Standard L1/perp default. If PT ships 10B or 100M, per-token count scales inversely — USD payout is unaffected. | medium | HYPE / DYDX / UNI / OP all launched at 1B |
Comparables & methodology
The reasoning behind the numbers driving the interactive projection above — which historical drops we anchor against, what weights the community poll assigned to each farming metric, and what could invalidate the model.
Comparable venues
Four drops we anchor the Polymarket model against. Each column tells you why the comparable applies and what happened when it went live — no cherry-picked winners.
| Venue | Airdrop % | FDV at listing | Why comparable | Key learning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperliquid · HYPE Nov 2024 | 31% of supply (Genesis, users) | ~$3B initial → $25B+ peak | CMO Matthew Modabber publicly named this as Polymarket's distribution template (Oct 2025). Perp-DEX with same trader-driven cohort. | Weighted on cumulative volume + trade count + funding fees. Sybil-filtered hard — "top traders got millions" but pure farmers got little. · source ↗ |
| Limitless · LMTS Oct 2025 | 2% Season 1 users (24.4% ecosystem overall, 1B supply) | ~$50M IDO → $694M ATH day 1 | PM-native competitor on Base — same product category as Polymarket, tokens already live. Season-1 retro-points model on trading volume + platform contribution. | Peak-day pump was 14× IDO price, then bled ~89% within months. Retro-points on volume worked but couldn't hold post-TGE — mercenaries dominated the drop. · source ↗ |
| Opinion · OPN Mar 2026 | ~3.5% at TGE (23.5% earmarked, 1B supply) | Not published → $763M pre-market ATH | PM-native drop only 4 months ago. Weighted on LP maker orders + executed volume + shares × time × topic multiplier — the closest live template to what Polymarket may run. | Phased release (only 3.5% at TGE, rest vested) — didn't stop the sell-side pressure: down ~91% from ATH. Signals that back-loading vesting alone won't fix mercenary sell pressure. · source ↗ |
| dYdX · DYDX Sep 2021 | 7.5% of supply (retro) | ~$10–14B at open → $27B peak | First major perps-trader retro-drop. Same "volume + P&L" school — anchors what a pure trading-cohort allocation curve looks like. | Volume was #1 metric. Median active trader got 4–10k tokens ≈ $30–140k USD at listing prices. · source ↗ |
| Uniswap · UNI Sep 2020 | 4.9% of supply (~60M UNI to ~250k wallets) | $2B initial → $7B peak-week | Original DeFi retro-drop template. Sets a floor for "how flat can a drop be" — everyone got 400 UNI regardless of activity. | Flat-per-wallet is the simplest curve. Polymarket almost certainly will NOT use this — CMO signalled a tiered / weighted model instead. · source ↗ |
| Blur · BLUR Feb 2023 | ~12% of supply across seasons | ~$2B FDV at TGE | Cautionary example. Explicit points-farming drop with visible gamification — the exact pattern Polymarket has said they will filter against. | Mercenary farmers dumped hard on TGE. Post-drop price bled for months. If Polymarket weights heavily to farming, expect the same sell pressure. · source ↗ |
Methodology
- Top-down anchor (community-poll consensus). Reports / discussions converge on 5–10% of POLY supply earmarked for users. Total supply is unannounced — so % is on a denominator you still have to guess at.
- Bottom-up weighting (Oriole community poll, 48 voters, Feb 2026). Trade volume 33%, UMA staked 23.8%, open interest 22.3%, resolutions proposed 4.5%, LP-rewards program 2.8%, dispute participation 2.8%, active days 2.7%, number of trades 0.8%, account age 0.1%. Top-3 metrics = 79% of conviction.
- The big tell: CMO Matthew Modabber publicly named Hyperliquid as Polymarket's distribution template. Hyperliquid weighted on cumulative volume + trade count + funding fees, sybil-filtered hard, and "top traders got millions" — but pure farmers got little.
Want to play with the numbers? Jump back to the interactive projection ↑
What could blow this estimate up
- Polymarket has explicitly confirmed sybil and bot wallets will be filtered. Multi-wallet + wash strategies risk disqualification (not just reduced allocation).
- US geographic exclusion is plausible despite CFTC approval — SEC concerns + the standard perps-drop pattern of excluding US users.
- Total supply unannounced — % allocations are meaningless until denominator drops.
- 12.5% community probability of NO token launch in 2026 (per Oriole pooled-capital poll).
- "The people who got the biggest Hyperliquid allocations weren't primarily farming." Genuine engagement outperformed.
Farming actions
Cumulative taker volume
10/10
Top weighting per community poll (33%). Cited as #1 metric in every comparable perps/PM drop
UMA staked (governance + resolution)
9/10
Community-poll #2 (23.8%). Rarely discussed in generic airdrop guides — Polymarket-specific edge
Open interest (positions held)
9/10
Community-poll #3 (22.3%). Signals separate from volume — sticky-capital metric
Resolutions proposed (UMA)
5/10
Community-poll factor (4.5%). Active resolver participation, not just stake
Liquidity Rewards Program participation
5/10
Community-poll factor (2.8%). Polymarket runs explicit LP rewards — usually a separate bucket
Dispute participation (UMA)
5/10
Community-poll factor (2.8%). Same as above — UMA-side activity is anti-sybil-friendly
Distinct active days / months
6/10
Community-poll factor (2.7%). Sticky-user signal — many drops use this as anti-sybil heuristic
Weights are heuristics — no official formula published. Poll-derived; edit assumptions in the projection above if you disagree.
Budget tiers
Small ($100 – $1,000)
Expected Establishment-tier — modest allocation expected; focus on building account history that survives anti-sybil filters.
- Spread capital across 15–20 different markets over multiple months (not a single sprint)
- Prioritize liquid markets — sports, politics, major crypto
- Explore Liquidity Rewards Program if cost-effective
- Add UMA staking if economically viable (gas + opportunity cost)
- Consistent monthly activity > a single high-volume week
Medium ($1,000 – $10,000)
Expected Author estimate: $5k – $50k in tokens (highly speculative — depends on TGE supply and allocation %).
- Trade markets where you have genuine edge — avoid random farming
- UMA staking as the second-most-weighted factor — meaningful position not just nominal
- Participate in dispute resolution flow when UMA escalates
- Build volume month-over-month, not front-loaded
- Maintain open positions — signals separate open-interest metric
Serious ($10,000+)
Expected Author estimate: $50k – $500k+ (speculative — depends on you actually trading well, not just farming).
- Build substantial volume in the highest-liquidity markets
- UMA staking is a priority + governance participation
- Provide AMM liquidity if/when incentive programs are running
- Maintain meaningful open interest across categories
- Diversify across market categories — politics + crypto + sports + macro
- DO NOT wash-trade — explicitly filtered
Strategy notes
Top-3 metrics (volume + UMA-stake + open interest) own 79% of community conviction. If you only optimize one thing, it's cumulative taker volume.
UMA staking is the under-the-radar edge most generic airdrop guides miss — 23.8% of community-poll weight, requires capital lock + understanding the resolution mechanism.
Hyperliquid template = volume + sticky-user + sybil-filtered. Don't plan strategies that depend on multi-wallet — they will be disqualified.
Trade real edges. The biggest Hyperliquid allocations went to traders who would have been on the platform anyway.
Polymarket reportedly: 2.15M wallets ever-used; 0.51% with >$1k cumulative P&L; 1.74% are "whales" (>$50k volume) — ~37k wallets in the top tier. Being in that top 1.74% likely matters more than the absolute $-volume.
House rules apply Trade volume you would have traded anyway. Sybil-farming with no genuine deposit history is the first thing every comparable drop has filtered out. See forum rules.
Sources
About the Polymarket $POLY airdrop
No token, no public roadmap. Volume leader on US politics + crypto-prediction with 2.15M wallets ever-used. CMO Matthew Modabber publicly named Hyperliquid as the distribution template (Oct 2025). Community-poll: 87.5% YES on token, 66.7% pooled capital backing Q2 2026 launch window.