Tokens & airdrops
Some of these betting sites hand out their own token to the people who used them early — a reward for showing up first. Here is who has already done it, who still might, and what a share could be worth. Every figure traces back to a public source: no insider tips, and nothing here is a promise of a payout.
Modeled airdrop scenarios
Baseline pool value if each venue drops at its default modeled supply % × FDV. Click through to any row to open the interactive planner and stress-test the assumptions.
| Venue | Ticker | Supply % | FDV (default) | Pool $ (baseline) | Qualifying wallets | Top cohort · share | Anchor (last round) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polymarket | $POLY | 7.5% | $8B | $600M | 2,137,000 | 37,000 · 50% | Oct 2025 · ICE strategic ($8B / $9B+ post) |
 Predict.fun | $PFUN | 8.0% | $100M | $8M | 235,000 | 5,000 · 45% | 2026 · YZi Labs + Susquehanna (rumored ~$50–100M FDV) |
These are DEFAULTS from each venue's scenario planner — deliberately conservative. Drag the sliders on the per-venue page to see how the pool grows/shrinks with different supply %/FDV assumptions.
Points programs live now
Every venue actively logging farming activity behind a program name. Snapshot dates aren't public for most; treat all activity as tracked.
After acquiring rival Probable (Mar 2026), Predict.fun converts existing Probable points → Predict.fun points at 2× multiplier. Ongoing rewards distributed weekly. No public formula — community-reported channel notes only. Behave as if every action is being tracked, whether it appears on a dashboard or not.
Points accrue from three surfaces: trading (taker volume), referrals (inviting other traders), and providing liquidity. Season 4 is currently active. Earlier seasons converted to LMTS at TGE per official communication.
Funding & token stack
Money in vs money out per venue: what's raised, when the token dropped (if it did), where FDV sits vs listing and vs the last private round.
Polymarket No public roadmap - Total raised
- $2.3B+
- Last round
- ICE strategic, Oct 2025
- Valuation
- $8B / $9B+
- TGE
- —
- Airdrop %
- —
- FDV listing → now
- — → —
- Points live
- No
- ETA
- Q2 2026 (est.)
Predict.fun No public roadmap - Total raised
- Undisclosed
- Last round
- YZi Labs + Susquehanna, 2026 (size undisclosed)
- Valuation
- Undisclosed (est. $50–100M)
- TGE
- —
- Airdrop %
- —
- FDV listing → now
- — → —
- Points live
- Yes
- ETA
- H2 2026 est. (post-Binance-listing pattern)
XO Market No public roadmap - Total raised
- $6M
- Last round
- Seed, Apr 2026
- Valuation
- Undisclosed
- TGE
- —
- Airdrop %
- —
- FDV listing → now
- — → —
- Points live
- No
- ETA
- Unknown
Limitless Token live - Total raised
- $13M+
- Last round
- Seed, 2025
- Valuation
- Undisclosed
- TGE
- 2025-11 (est.)
- Airdrop %
- Not broken out (Ecosystem 23.31% + Public 0.06% per token page)
- FDV listing → now
- n/a (gradual launch) → ~$78M (BaseScan, 2026-06)
- Points live
- Yes
- ETA
- Live · S3 drop 2026-05-25
Opinion Token live - Total raised
- $25M+
- Last round
- Pre-Series A, Feb 2026
- Valuation
- >$500M
- TGE
- 2026-03-05
- Airdrop %
- 4.5% (S1 + Alpha)
- FDV listing → now
- ~$500M (premkt) → See Binance live ↗
- Points live
- No
- ETA
- Live (TGE 2026-03-05)
Kalshi No token planned - Total raised
- $2.5B+
- Last round
- Series F, May 2026
- Valuation
- $22B
- TGE
- —
- Airdrop %
- —
- FDV listing → now
- — → —
- Points live
- No
- ETA
- No token planned
Total raised and last-round numbers are pulled from venue funding histories. TGE / airdrop % / FDV cells stay blank until verified against a primary source we can WebFetch on publish.
Revenue snapshot
Most prediction-market venues don't publish a revenue figure. Cells marked est. are reverse-engineered from public volume + the venue's published fee schedule. Treat as order-of-magnitude, not audited.
Polymarket - Cumulative revenue
- ~$60–120M est.
- Monthly revenue
- ~$10–25M / mo est.
- Source / model
- Taker 0–7.2% · maker free + 25% rebate
- Notes
- Heavy maker-rebate; estimate = blended ~0.7% × reported monthly volume. No official figure.
Predict.fun - Cumulative revenue
- Not disclosed
- Monthly revenue
- Not disclosed
- Source / model
- Taker 0.018–2% curve · maker 0%
- Notes
- Only major venue native to BNB Chain — protocol subsidises gas so trading feels gas-free. Binance-app embed = biggest distribution surface in crypto.
XO Market - Cumulative revenue
- Not disclosed
- Monthly revenue
- Not disclosed
- Source / model
- Creator-set ~1% · gas subsidised
- Notes
- ~$2–3M recent daily volume; ~$420M cumulative traded since Nov 2025 launch; 3.8M+ on-chain transactions; ~49k users (source: XO analytics GraphQL, Jul 2026). Most fees split with market-creators; protocol take not published.
Limitless - Cumulative revenue
- Not disclosed
- Monthly revenue
- Not disclosed
- Source / model
- Taker 0.4–3% · maker rebate up to 100% (hot crypto)
- Notes
- 100% maker-rebate suppresses net take. ~19k crypto markets/week reported.
Opinion - Cumulative revenue
- ~$30M+ pre-TGE
- Monthly revenue
- Not disclosed
- Source / model
- Taker 0–1% · Opinion AI resolution
- Notes
- Pre-TGE figure community-sourced (Telegram, Mar 2026). ~$30M fees vs ~$15M-implied distributed at TGE — fed post-launch TVL exit.
Kalshi - Cumulative revenue
- ~$300M+ est.
- Monthly revenue
- ~$80–120M / mo est.
- Source / model
- Parabolic taker (peak 1.75% @ $0.50) + maker carve-out
- Notes
- Estimate from $17B+ monthly volume × parabolic schedule. No official figure.
Methodology: volume × blended fee curve. Where the venue runs heavy maker rebates (Polymarket 25% taker rebate, Limitless 100% on hot crypto) actual net protocol take is materially smaller than gross take.
Per-venue deep-dives
Polymarket
No public roadmapETA · Q2 2026 (est.)
No token, no public roadmap. Volume leader on US politics + crypto-prediction with 2.15M wallets ever-used. CMO Matthew Modabber publicly named Hyperliquid as the distribution template (Oct 2025). Community-poll: 87.5% YES on token, 66.7% pooled capital backing Q2 2026 launch window.
Predict.fun
No public roadmapETA · H2 2026 est. (post-Binance-listing pattern)
No token, no confirmed roadmap. YZi Labs-backed, CZ-endorsed. Only prediction market natively integrated into the Binance mobile app (9 Apr 2026). Absorbed rival Probable and converted its points at 2×. All signs point to a Binance-affiliated retro-drop once TGE lands.
XO Market
No public roadmapETA · Unknown
No token, no confirmed roadmap, but the venue runs its own XO Chain (L2 over Celestia) which is a strong gas-token candidate. Permissionless market-creation = unique surface to farm beyond just taker volume.
Limitless
Token liveETA · Live · S3 drop 2026-05-25
$LMTS token live on Base. Limitless operates short-duration crypto-event markets (5m / 15m / 1h / 1d) — highest market-creation rate of any PM venue. Currently on Points Season 4 — active farming surface, not just historical drop.
Opinion
Token liveETA · Live (TGE 2026-03-05)
$OPN token launched 2026-03-05. Largest BNB-chain prediction venue with an in-house Opinion AI resolver + Chainlink price feeds. Season-1 drop = 3% supply + 1.5% via Binance Alpha = 4.5% total to community. Community reading: smaller than expected relative to fees collected.
Kalshi
No token plannedETA · No token planned
CFTC-regulated DCM with USD bank-rail settlement and equity-financed structure (Series F at $22B, May 2026). No token mechanism on the roadmap — included here for funding / revenue comparison context, not as a farming target.
Where a venue has launched its token, we report the public metrics (ticker, TGE date, supply, vesting) only after verifying them against the venue's own announcement. Where a venue has not launched, we model the projection using comparable already-dropped venues (dYdX, Hyperliquid, Lighter, etc.) and publish the assumptions, not a $-prediction. The estimate is a range you can stress-test, not guidance to act on.
Kalshi is excluded — as a CFTC-regulated DCM with USD bank-rail settlement, it has no token mechanism on the roadmap.