Wall Street
Jamie Dimon
CEO, JPMorgan Chase · 2026
“It is kind of an amazing development. It's possible one day we'll do something like that.”
Real money on what happens next
The odds on everything
Elections, sports, the economy, awards — people put real money on the outcome, and the price becomes the odds. PredictionTalk shows you where.
Tracking
6 Places to bet, compared
Kalshi · Polymarket · Predict.fun · Limitless · XO Market · Opinion
4 Ways a result gets decided
UMA · Chainlink · Pyth Network · CF Benchmarks
All Countries covered
Who is allowed where — straight from each site's own terms
Open Data anyone can reuse
Every number here is free to take · updated daily
Wisdom of crowds
What the people who matter say
25 voices across Wall Street, regulators, crypto, platform founders and a 1945 Nobel laureate — converging on one idea: prediction markets price the future better than polls or pundits. Every quote traceable to its original tweet, essay or press release.
Wall Street
Vlad Tenev
CEO, Robinhood · 2025
“We're just at the beginning of a prediction market supercycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time.”
Wall Street
Cathie Wood
CEO & CIO, ARK Invest · 2026
“Prediction markets are emerging as a powerful new layer of financial infrastructure.”
Wall Street
Jeff Sprecher
Chairman & CEO, ICE / NYSE · 2025
“Our investment blends ICE — owner of the NYSE since 1792 — with a forward-thinking, revolutionary company.”
Wall Street
Terry Duffy
Chairman & CEO, CME Group · 2026
“The lines have become blurred between swaps, which let investors hedge risk, and products that are essentially bets.”
Regulators & Policy
Hester Peirce
Commissioner, U.S. SEC · 2025
“Prediction markets are really interesting. At a base level, they can be really good ways of drawing people’s knowledge in and putting it in a forum that the rest of us can use.”
Regulators & Policy
Patrick McHenry
Former Chair, House Financial Services · 2026
“In a casino or sportsbook, the house sets odds and profits when customers lose. In a prediction market exchange, participants trade with one another while the platform earns transaction fees.”
Regulators & Policy
Caroline Pham
Acting Chair, U.S. CFTC · 2024
“Bad process begets bad outcomes. The Commission’s actions do not match up with our words.”
Regulators & Policy
Brian Quintenz
Head of Policy, a16z crypto · former CFTC · 2025
“The law is very clear about events that have commercial, financial or economic consequence qualifying as commodities.”
Regulators & Policy
French Hill
Chair, House Financial Services · 2026
“We are asking the questions of the regulatory agencies and stakeholders about — is there a need for any imminent statutory change?”
Crypto & VC
Vitalik Buterin
Co-founder, Ethereum · 2024
“Putting Polymarket into the category of "gambling" is a massive misunderstanding of what prediction markets are or why people (including economists and policy intellectuals) are excited about them.”
Crypto & VC
Elon Musk
CEO, Tesla / SpaceX · owner of X · 2024
“Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”
Crypto & VC
Chris Dixon
Founder, a16z crypto · 2025
“Prediction markets are a modern implementation of a classic economic idea, articulated by Friedrich Hayek.”
Crypto & VC
Mike Novogratz
CEO, Galaxy Digital · 2025
“We're experimenting with market-making on prediction markets — and you'll see us providing broader liquidity.”
Crypto & VC
Brian Armstrong
CEO, Coinbase · 2025
“Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, Web3 — just want to add the words before the end of the call.”
Builders & Academics
Alex Tabarrok
Economist, GMU · Marginal Revolution · 2012
“A bet is a tax on bullshit; and it is a just tax, tribute paid by the bullshitters to those with genuine knowledge.”
Builders & Academics
James Surowiecki
Author, The Wisdom of Crowds · 2004
“Under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them.”
Builders & Academics
Tarek Mansour
Co-founder & CEO, Kalshi · 2026
“Markets don’t lie.”
Builders & Academics
Robin Hanson
Economist, GMU · inventor of futarchy · 2013
“Vote on values, but bet on beliefs.”
Builders & Academics
Bryan Caplan
Economist, GMU · "Bet On It" · 2016
“I owe my track record to numeracy and normalcy. Step back, calm down, look at the numbers.”
Voices, Critics & Anchors
Friedrich Hayek
Economist · Nobel laureate 1974 · 1945
“The knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form, but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess.”
Voices, Critics & Anchors
Donald Trump Jr.
1789 Capital · Polymarket Advisory Board · 2025
“Polymarket cuts through media spin and so-called 'expert' opinion by letting people bet on what they actually believe will happen in the world.”
Voices, Critics & Anchors
Bill Ackman
CEO, Pershing Square · 2025
“There is no insider trading on Polymarket.”
Voices, Critics & Anchors
Tyler Cowen
Economist, GMU · Marginal Revolution · 2021
“The outcomes also need to be sufficiently well-defined that contract settlement is not in dispute.”
Voices, Critics & Anchors
Naval Ravikant
Founder, AngelList · Polymarket seed investor · 2024
“Polymarket for predictions, Perplexity for results.”
1 / 25
Block 1 / 5 · Wall Street
JPMorgan, Robinhood, ARK, NYSE, CME — TradFi is moving in.
Jamie Dimon
CEO, JPMorgan Chase · 2026
“It is kind of an amazing development. It's possible one day we'll do something like that.”
Vlad Tenev
CEO, Robinhood · 2025
“We're just at the beginning of a prediction market supercycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time.”
Cathie Wood
CEO & CIO, ARK Invest · 2026
“Prediction markets are emerging as a powerful new layer of financial infrastructure.”
Jeff Sprecher
Chairman & CEO, ICE / NYSE · 2025
“Our investment blends ICE — owner of the NYSE since 1792 — with a forward-thinking, revolutionary company.”
Terry Duffy
Chairman & CEO, CME Group · 2026
“The lines have become blurred between swaps, which let investors hedge risk, and products that are essentially bets.”
Block 2 / 5 · Regulators & Policy
The SEC, CFTC and Congress are picking sides — mostly in favour.
Hester Peirce
Commissioner, U.S. SEC · 2025
“Prediction markets are really interesting. At a base level, they can be really good ways of drawing people’s knowledge in and putting it in a forum that the rest of us can use.”
Patrick McHenry
Former Chair, House Financial Services · 2026
“In a casino or sportsbook, the house sets odds and profits when customers lose. In a prediction market exchange, participants trade with one another while the platform earns transaction fees.”
Caroline Pham
Acting Chair, U.S. CFTC · 2024
“Bad process begets bad outcomes. The Commission’s actions do not match up with our words.”
Brian Quintenz
Head of Policy, a16z crypto · former CFTC · 2025
“The law is very clear about events that have commercial, financial or economic consequence qualifying as commodities.”
French Hill
Chair, House Financial Services · 2026
“We are asking the questions of the regulatory agencies and stakeholders about — is there a need for any imminent statutory change?”
Block 3 / 5 · Crypto & VC
The builders, founders and venture capital pushing the rails forward.
Vitalik Buterin
Co-founder, Ethereum · 2024
“Putting Polymarket into the category of "gambling" is a massive misunderstanding of what prediction markets are or why people (including economists and policy intellectuals) are excited about them.”
Elon Musk
CEO, Tesla / SpaceX · owner of X · 2024
“Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”
Chris Dixon
Founder, a16z crypto · 2025
“Prediction markets are a modern implementation of a classic economic idea, articulated by Friedrich Hayek.”
Mike Novogratz
CEO, Galaxy Digital · 2025
“We're experimenting with market-making on prediction markets — and you'll see us providing broader liquidity.”
Brian Armstrong
CEO, Coinbase · 2025
“Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, Web3 — just want to add the words before the end of the call.”
Block 4 / 5 · Builders & Academics
The founders running the platforms and the thinkers who defined the idea.
Alex Tabarrok
Economist, GMU · Marginal Revolution · 2012
“A bet is a tax on bullshit; and it is a just tax, tribute paid by the bullshitters to those with genuine knowledge.”
James Surowiecki
Author, The Wisdom of Crowds · 2004
“Under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them.”
Tarek Mansour
Co-founder & CEO, Kalshi · 2026
“Markets don’t lie.”
Robin Hanson
Economist, GMU · inventor of futarchy · 2013
“Vote on values, but bet on beliefs.”
Bryan Caplan
Economist, GMU · "Bet On It" · 2016
“I owe my track record to numeracy and normalcy. Step back, calm down, look at the numbers.”
Block 5 / 5 · Voices, Critics & Anchors
From a 1945 Nobel laureate to a 2025 hedge-fund manager on X.
Friedrich Hayek
Economist · Nobel laureate 1974 · 1945
“The knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form, but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess.”
Donald Trump Jr.
1789 Capital · Polymarket Advisory Board · 2025
“Polymarket cuts through media spin and so-called 'expert' opinion by letting people bet on what they actually believe will happen in the world.”
Bill Ackman
CEO, Pershing Square · 2025
“There is no insider trading on Polymarket.”
Tyler Cowen
Economist, GMU · Marginal Revolution · 2021
“The outcomes also need to be sufficiently well-defined that contract settlement is not in dispute.”
Naval Ravikant
Founder, AngelList · Polymarket seed investor · 2024
“Polymarket for predictions, Perplexity for results.”
What's inside
Independent — we don't run any of these sites and we don't take a cut.
How big each site is
How much money is riding on each site right now, over the last day and the last month, and what each one charges you. Updated every 6 hours.
Where you can bet
A page on each site — Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun, Limitless, XO Market, Opinion: how it works, who runs it, which countries it accepts.
Who decides the result
Every bet needs someone to call the outcome. Here is who does that on each site — UMA, Chainlink, Pyth Network, CF Benchmarks — and how the call is made.
Rewards & tokens
Which sites hand out their own token to early users, what past hand-outs turned out to be worth, and what to expect from the ones still quiet about it.
Events calendar
One calendar for everything you could bet on — matches, elections, awards, big economic announcements. Pick what interests you and see where the bets are.
Forum
Where people compare notes: what worked, what didn't, and how each site actually behaves once real money is on it.
Guides & house rules
How this place works, how merit and ranks are earned, and the rules everyone here follows.
Guides
Where to start
New here? Start with one of these.
01
Compare all 6 sites side by side
What it costs, who is allowed to join, and how it works — the same questions answered for every one.
02
Who decides if you won
The services that settle each bet, what each one does, and which sites rely on them.
03
Forum + Telegram
Talk to people who actually do this.