Your projected airdrop
—
Per-cohort breakdown
| Cohort | Wallets | Pool share | Cohort pool | Avg per wallet | Who this is |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-tier traders | 5,000 | 45% | — | — | Top ~2% by lifetime taker volume (>$50k). Binance-app embed steers heavy flow here; expect these wallets to capture the majority of pool value. |
| Active mid-tier | 30,000 | 40% | — | — | ~10% of active wallets. Multi-month activity with real fill flow — the sweet spot for sustained points accrual on the maker-free side. |
| Establishment / casual | 200,000 | 15% | — | — | Long tail of Binance-app curious. Modest allocation — first to be filtered if sybil-detection cuts hard. |
Advanced sliders
Points-first model. Predict.fun's XP program is the observable drop-basis metric — same pattern LMTS and OPN used (retro-points → snapshot → allocation). We put the XP balance at the centre of the scoring and treat volume/loyalty metrics as secondary — they matter mostly because they generate XP.
Fill what you've got. Chips = live Polymarket totals — start typing and watch your share tick up. Source: DefiLlama, 2026-07-10.
The observable drop-basis metric. Probable points convert 2× post-acquisition.
Highest-weight XP generator (taker 2% fee — highest friction, so highest reward per $).
Free-maker side accrues XP cheaply — but weight per $ is likely lower than taker.
Sticky-user / anti-sybil signal. Points programs reward consistency, not one-time blasts.
Built-in invite system → attribution tracked at protocol level.
Trade-count signal.
Cross-section engagement — genuine users trade broadly.
How the math works
Score = Σ (your_input / anchor × weight), capped at 2× per input. Anchors are conservative serious-farmer profiles per the strategy section above.
Tokens = score × (supply × bucket_pct) ÷ qualifying_wallets. Three scenarios = (low, mid, high) bucket % × supply.
USD = tokens × FDV / total_supply, evaluated at three FDV scenarios.
Assumptions: bucket 5–15% of supply · FDV $0.05–$0.8B · qualifying wallets 235,000.
Bucket %: YZi-Labs / Binance-affiliated venues historically drop 5–15% of supply to users. FDV: no public raise number; anchored to comparable-vintage PM-native venues (LMTS $50M IDO / OPN $118M peak). Qualifying-wallet count matches the three cohort tiers (5k + 30k + 200k).
How defensible is this model?
Honest grade per assumption. Anything tagged speculative is a heuristic, not a forecast — the calculator output inherits the weakest assumption it depends on.
| Assumption | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|
| XP balance is the observable drop-basis metric (like LMTS Season-1 points, OPN pre-drop points) | high | Probable → Predict.fun conversion at 2× is only possible with a per-wallet points ledger; comparable PM-native venues (LMTS, OPN) both distributed on points basis. |
| Taker volume weighted higher per $ than maker volume in XP accrual | medium | Fee-curve signal (taker 2%, maker 0%). Higher friction → higher reward per $ is the standard incentive-alignment logic. |
| Binance-account-linked bonus tier at snapshot | speculative | BNB Alpha + past BNB-Chain airdrops used the pattern; not confirmed for Predict.fun. |
| Airdrop bucket 5–15% of supply | medium | YZi Labs / BNB Chain retro-drop historical range (Manta, Jito-adjacent). |
| Total supply 1B | medium | HYPE / LMTS / OPN all landed on 1B — modern retro convention. |
| Probable-legacy wallets get 2× carry | high | Community-reported channel notes (Mar 2026 post-acquisition announcement). |
Points program
Predict.fun XP (Probable-absorbed)
After acquiring rival Probable (Mar 2026), Predict.fun converts existing Probable points → Predict.fun points at 2× multiplier. Ongoing rewards distributed weekly. No public formula — community-reported channel notes only. Behave as if every action is being tracked, whether it appears on a dashboard or not.
Comparables & methodology
The reasoning behind the numbers driving the interactive projection above — which historical drops we anchor against, what weights the community poll assigned to each farming metric, and what could invalidate the model.
Comparable venues
Four drops we anchor the Predict.fun model against. Each column tells you why the comparable applies and what happened when it went live — no cherry-picked winners.
| Venue | Airdrop % | FDV at listing | Why comparable | Key learning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperliquid · HYPE Nov 2024 | 31% of supply (Genesis, users) | ~$3B initial → $25B+ peak | Trader-driven cohort with hard sybil-filter. Sets the ceiling for what a well-executed retro on a real product looks like. | Weighted on cum-volume + trade count + funding fees. Top wallets captured most of the pool; pure farmers got very little. · source ↗ |
| Limitless · LMTS Oct 2025 | 2% Season 1 users (24.4% ecosystem, 1B supply) | ~$50M IDO → $694M ATH day 1 | PM-native competitor on Base — same product category. Season-1 retro-points model, similar user acquisition curve. | 14× pump on TGE day, then bled ~89% within months. Retro-points on volume worked but mercenaries dominated after listing. · source ↗ |
| Opinion · OPN Mar 2026 | ~3.5% at TGE (23.5% earmarked, 1B supply) | Not published → $763M pre-market ATH | PM-native, TGE only 4 months ago. Phased-release model most likely to inform Predict.fun's eventual mechanics. | Phased vesting alone did not stop mercenary sell pressure — down ~91% from ATH. Distribution matters more than lock-up. · source ↗ |
| Jito · JTO Dec 2023 | 10% of supply (retro) | ~$1.5B initial → $4.4B peak | Reference for a well-distributed app-native retro. Not PM but the tokenomics + surface (embedded in wallet flow) rhymes with Binance-app-embedded Predict.fun. | Points program → snapshot → 10% retro. Users who parked activity through the eligible period were rewarded even without maxing every metric. · source ↗ |
Methodology
- The points ARE the drop-basis. Predict.fun's XP tracker is the observable metric — same pattern LMTS (Season-1 retro-points → 2% drop) and OPN (pre-drop points → 3.5% at TGE) both used. Everything else (volume, active days, referrals) matters only insofar as it generates XP. Model puts XP balance at 50% weight; volume and loyalty are secondary XP-generation metrics.
- Top-down anchor. Predict.fun has no public airdrop guidance. YZi-Labs-backed + Binance-app-embedded venues historically dropped 5–15% of supply to users (BNB-alpha, Jito-style). Assume mid-range 8% baseline until anything more concrete lands.
- The Probable 2× conversion. Post-acquisition (Mar 2026), Probable points → Predict.fun points × 2. This is the strongest confirmation that XP is tracked per-wallet and matters — you cannot run a 2× conversion without a real ledger. Legacy Probable farmers are advantaged.
- The Binance-app surface. Asymmetric bet: users trading through the Binance app embed (post 9 Apr 2026) may qualify for a Binance-account-linked bonus tier — same pattern Binance used for BNB Alpha and past BNB-Chain airdrops. Keep your Binance account verified and linked to your trading wallet.
Want to play with the numbers? Jump back to the interactive projection ↑
- Binance-app-embedded distribution may lock the drop to Binance-account-linked wallets — keep a verified Binance account tied to your trading wallet.
- US geo-restrictions on token claim are highly likely (BNB Chain venues + Binance-affiliated products historically block US).
- The Probable 2× conversion only applies to points held at acquisition time — accrual since then is 1×. Don't assume old Probable balances carry indefinitely.
- No public snapshot date announced. Front-loading activity right before a Binance listing rumor risks disqualification if snapshot already passed.
- Total supply / airdrop % not published — % allocations are placeholder until denominator lands.
Farming actions
Weights are heuristics — no official formula published. Poll-derived; edit assumptions in the projection above if you disagree.
Budget tiers
- Take 15-min BTC positions you actually have a view on — 5-10 per week
- Use the Binance-app embed exclusively (post-9 Apr 2026) so you register as a Binance-flow user
- Keep it going for 3+ distinct months — sticky-user metric matters more than a single-week spike
- Grab an invite code (10% off taker fees) — accrues over hundreds of trades
- Split ~60% taker (for the higher-weight metric) / ~40% maker (for cheap volume accrual)
- Concentrate maker orders around fair-value on 15-min BTC markets
- Referral flow: 1–2 active friends brings in the built-in referral-attributed-volume metric
- Diversify across text (UMA-resolved) and price (Chainlink-resolved) markets — signals genuine engagement
- Sustained high-freq maker on 15-min crypto markets — the cheapest lifetime-volume metric
- Cross $50k cumulative taker volume to land squarely in top-tier cohort
- Run a real referral tree — invite code + attributed volume compounds
- Verified Binance account linked; consider trading exclusively through the app embed to secure the Binance-linked cohort bonus if it materialises
- Keep positions boring — sybil-farming with no real deposit history is the first thing filtered
Strategy notes
Sources
About the Predict.fun $PFUN airdrop
No token, no confirmed roadmap. YZi Labs-backed, CZ-endorsed. Only prediction market natively integrated into the Binance mobile app (9 Apr 2026). Absorbed rival Probable and converted its points at 2×. All signs point to a Binance-affiliated retro-drop once TGE lands.