Prediction Markets Overview
How much money is riding on each site, how much changes hands every day, and what each one charges. Updated every 6 hours.
Stack & Validators — side‑by‑side
The 6 venues we cover, compared on what matters: chain, resolution stack (external oracles + self-validators), market structure, fee model, and what makes each worth a look.
| Venue | Chain | Resolution | Type | Fee | Standout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kalshi | Off-chain |   Kalshi | CLOB | 0%–7% | Volume leader · CFTC-regulated DCM · USD deposits · US institutional |
 Polymarket | Polygon |   | CLOB | 0%–7.2% | Politics + crypto powerhouse · 3-oracle stack (UMA + Chainlink + Pyth) |
 Opinion | BNB Chain | Opinion | CLOB | 0%–1% | Biggest BNB-chain venue · in-house Opinion AI + Chainlink |
 Predict.fun | BNB Chain | | CLOB | 0.018%–2% | Inside the Binance app · UMA + Chainlink dual oracle |
 Limitless | Base | | CLOB / AMM | 0.4%–3% | Short-duration (~hours) · ~19k crypto markets / week |
 XO Market | XO Chain | XO Market | CLOB / AMM | 0%–1% | Permissionless conviction markets · gas subsidised |
| Kalshi | Polymarket | Opinion | Predict.fun | Limitless | XO Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chain | Off-chain | Polygon | BNB Chain | BNB Chain | Base | XO Chain |
| Resolution | | | | | | |
| Type | CLOB | CLOB | CLOB | CLOB | CLOB / AMM | CLOB / AMM |
| Fee | 0%–7% | 0%–7.2% | 0%–1% | 0.018%–2% | 0.4%–3% | 0%–1% |
| Standout | Volume leader · CFTC-regulated DCM · USD deposits · US institutional | Politics + crypto powerhouse · 3-oracle stack (UMA + Chainlink + Pyth) | Biggest BNB-chain venue · in-house Opinion AI + Chainlink | Inside the Binance app · UMA + Chainlink dual oracle | Short-duration (~hours) · ~19k crypto markets / week | Permissionless conviction markets · gas subsidised |
Distribution — who routes flow into each venue
Third-party consumer products (brokers, crypto exchanges, wallets, super-apps) that expose a PT-tracked venue inside their own app. Kalshi wins the regulated broker channel; Polymarket owns the crypto-wallet channel. Opinion, Limitless and XO Market have no third-party consumer surfaces as of this report.
Polymarket integrators are almost all self-custodial crypto wallets or DEXes — they don't publish "assets under management" the way regulated brokers do. Comparable axis on this side is monthly trading / swap volume — the capital that flows through the integrator per month.
Takeaway. Polymarket reaches ~420.1M users through self-custodial wallets — 4.8× Kalshi's ~87.8M — but Kalshi captures the world of regulated brokerage assets: $1.7T across its regulated-broker surfaces. Polymarket integrators are mostly non-custodial, so client-asset totals aren't the right axis for them — the axis is reach. Kalshi itself is now available in 143 countries; the US concentration on this list reflects where the third-party broker-embed wave started, not Kalshi's own geography.
Predict.fun lives exclusively inside Binance Wallet (Apr 2026) — Binance couldn't route to Polymarket for regulatory reasons, so it leaned on a BNB Chain-native protocol built on the Polymarket-style contract stack. That single distribution deal exposes Predict.fun to Binance's ~200M registered accounts.
Not integrators — competitors
Exchanges, brokers and platforms that launched their own prediction-market stack instead of routing to Kalshi or Polymarket. Headline planned entry: Meta "Arena" — a standalone points-based PM app Zuckerberg has directed staff to build, potentially exposing ~3B people to PMs overnight if it ships. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Outcome Contracts is also own-stack (validator-set resolved, not UMA / Kalshi).
"Reach" is the integrator's public headline user count (funded accounts / MAU / registered wallets — see each row's source). Assets = AUC / AUM / client equity for brokers/exchanges; monthly swap or trading volume for crypto-native wallets. Every number links to the primary IR page or press release.
Platform Comparison
Compare the sites by size, daily turnover and fees. Tap a column header to sort.
| Platform ▲ | Money in ▲ | 24h Vol ▲ | 30d Vol ▲ | 24h Fees ▲ | 24h Change ▲ | Chains ▲ | Type ▲ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading platform data... | |||||||
Trading Volume
Daily trading volume across prediction market platforms, stacked by protocol.
30-Day Volume Share
Trending Markets
Top prediction markets on Polymarket by 24-hour trading volume.
Platform Deep Dives
In-depth profiles of the leading prediction market platforms, from established leaders to emerging challengers.
Polymarket
Tier 1The dominant crypto prediction market, built on Polygon using USDC. Polymarket gained mainstream attention during the 2024 US presidential election and has since expanded into sports, crypto, economics, and pop culture markets. Known for deep liquidity and a smooth trading UX powered by its CLOB (central limit order book) hybrid model.
Kalshi
Tier 1The first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the US. Kalshi offers event contracts on politics, economics, weather, and more to American users. After winning a landmark legal battle to list election contracts in 2024, Kalshi has rapidly grown into one of the largest regulated prediction platforms globally.
Opinion
Tier 2A BNB Chain-based prediction market backed by YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs), rapidly gaining market share since its October 2025 mainnet launch. Opinion uses a fully on-chain order book (CLOB) with AI oracle resolution, offering markets spanning crypto, politics, sports, and current events with competitive fees.
Probable
Tier 2A crypto-native prediction platform on BNB Chain that lets users trade on the outcome of real-world events across politics, economics, sports, crypto, and more. Probable focuses on a clean UX, simplicity and speed; see Probable's own site for current cumulative-volume figures.
Predict.fun
Tier 2Built on BNB Chain, Predict.fun combines prediction market trading with the yield-bearing features of its underlying chain. Users can trade event contracts with deep integration into the Binance mobile app and gas-subsidised trading.
Limitless Exchange
Tier 2A Base-chain prediction market that uses an innovative AMM-based design allowing users to create and trade markets permissionlessly. Limitless stands out with its user-generated market creation, enabling anyone to launch a prediction market on any topic.
Myriad Markets
Tier 3An emerging prediction market on the Sui blockchain, leveraging Sui's object-centric model for efficient market creation and settlement. Myriad is one of the first prediction platforms in the Sui ecosystem, aiming to bring event trading to a new chain community.
Other Notable Platforms
The prediction market ecosystem also includes Azuro (decentralized betting protocol on Polygon, Gnosis, Base), Overtime Markets (sports-focused, Optimism/Arbitrum/Base), Drift Protocol (BET markets on Solana), Hedgehog Markets (Solana-based), and Thales Market (Optimism positional markets). These platforms contribute to the growing diversity and specialization of the prediction market landscape.
Prediction Markets: A Brief History
From academic experiments to billion-dollar platforms, the evolution of prediction markets.
Iowa Electronic Markets
The University of Iowa launches the first modern prediction market, allowing participants to trade contracts on US presidential elections. It demonstrated that markets could forecast elections more accurately than polls.
Intrade Founded
Dublin-based Intrade launches, becoming the go-to prediction market for political and world events. It would operate until 2013, when it closed due to regulatory issues with the CFTC.
Augur & Gnosis
The first blockchain-based prediction markets emerge. Augur (Ethereum) and Gnosis pioneered decentralized event contracts, though adoption remained limited due to high gas fees and complex UX.
Polymarket Launches
Polymarket launches on Polygon, offering a streamlined crypto prediction market experience. Early markets on COVID-19 and politics attract initial traction and demonstrate product-market fit.
Kalshi Becomes the First CFTC-Approved Event-Contract DCM
Kalshi becomes the first CFTC-approved Designated Contract Market (DCM) for event contracts in November 2020, the foundational regulatory clearance that opened a US-legal venue for retail event trading.
The Election Breakout
The 2024 US presidential election becomes a watershed moment. Polymarket processes record election-cycle volume (multi-billion USD across the cycle, multiple media sources). Kalshi wins its D.C. Circuit case (Oct 2024) to list election contracts. Prediction markets enter mainstream consciousness, cited by major media outlets as real-time probability indicators.
Industry Maturation
Post-election, the industry diversifies beyond politics into sports, crypto, economics, and culture. New platforms launch across multiple chains. Institutional interest grows as the market infrastructure matures with better liquidity, lower fees, and improved regulatory clarity.
The Future of Prediction Markets
From tokenized governance to AI-powered trading, prediction markets are evolving from niche tools into fundamental infrastructure for information discovery.
The POLY Token
Polymarket confirmed in October 2025 that a native token is in development. The POLY token is expected to introduce governance rights, staking incentives, and fee sharing for liquidity providers — transforming Polymarket from a pure trading venue into a tokenized protocol with community ownership. Following ICE/NYSE's $2 billion investment at a ~$9 billion valuation, the token launch is one of the most anticipated events in crypto for 2026.
Polymarket Chain
Announced in December 2025 as "priority number one," Polymarket is building a dedicated Layer 2 blockchain to migrate off Polygon. The new chain will support sub-second finality, native CLOB matching, and gasless trading — purpose-built for prediction market throughput. This mirrors the broader trend of applications launching app-specific chains (like dYdX and Hyperliquid) to escape generalized L1 constraints. A next-generation oracle system is being designed alongside the chain, moving beyond UMA's optimistic model toward faster, more robust resolution.
AI Agents as Market Makers
Autonomous AI trading agents are already a visible share of prediction-market flow — running arbitrage between venues and providing tighter spreads on long-tail markets. Quantifying the exact share is hard (no venue publishes bot-vs-human attribution publicly); the directional trend is clear in 2026 chain analytics from Dune dashboards and venue post-mortems. This creates deeper liquidity but also raises questions about market dynamics when algorithms set price faster than human reaction.
Futarchy: Actions as Bets
The philosopher Robin Hanson's vision of "futarchy" — governance by prediction market — is becoming reality. MetaDAO on Solana already lets token holders propose and vote on decisions where the market's price reaction determines the outcome. Optimism has experimented with prediction-based governance. The core idea is revolutionary: every action, every statement, every proposal can be expressed as a bet with real financial consequences. When words become bets, accountability becomes automatic and information becomes more honest.
Institutional Wave
Major financial institutions are building prediction-market infrastructure. ICE (owner of NYSE) put $1B into Polymarket in October 2025 at a reported $9B+ valuation, plus a follow-on $600M direct cash investment in 2026 (per ICE investor relations). Kalshi raised $300M (Series D, Oct 2025), $1B (Series E, Nov 2025, Paradigm-led) and $1B (Series F, May 2026, Coatue-led) at a $22B valuation. Robinhood, Interactive Brokers and several brokerages have launched or partnered into event-contract distribution. Trading firms (including DRW, Susquehanna, Jump) are increasingly visible in the order books.
Vitalik's "Info Finance" Vision
Ethereum's Vitalik Buterin has championed prediction markets as the foundation of "information finance" — a paradigm where markets for hedging and forecasting could eventually rival or supplement traditional financial instruments. His February 2026 thesis argues that prediction market primitives (conditional tokens, combinatorial markets, and market-based dispute resolution) can be extended to insurance, governance, and even personal decision-making. Conditional markets — "What happens to X if Y occurs?" — unlock entirely new forms of causal reasoning at scale.
The 2026 Catalyst
The 2024 US election proved prediction markets to mainstream audiences. The 2026 FIFA World Cup (June–July, USA/Canada/Mexico) and US midterm elections represent the next catalyst cycle. With infrastructure now in place across regulated (Kalshi) and crypto-native (Polymarket, Opinion, Probable) venues, these events are expected to drive prediction market volume to new all-time highs and onboard millions of new users who experience probability-priced event trading for the first time.
PredictionTalk: The Community Hub
PredictionTalk is building the go-to community for prediction market traders, researchers, and enthusiasts. As the industry grows from millions to billions of participants, the need for a dedicated space to discuss strategies, analyze market dynamics, share alpha, and debate resolution outcomes becomes critical. From Polymarket deep dives to Kalshi strategy threads, PredictionTalk is where the prediction market community converges. Join the conversation and help shape the future of information markets.
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